?
MLB 2016 Win Totals Over-Under:

No Love for the Astros, Don't Trust the Yankees

? ?
?
Atlantis Race and Sports Book released win totals for MLB’s 2016 season yesterday. They envision an American League full of parity and a National League with some bad, bad teams. Here’s a look at the totals as well as some gut reaction.

Let me state up front that so much of this is gut feeling that doing a deep dive into statistics seemed a bit silly. Anyone who has ever placed a bet on a 162-game marathon knows staying healthy is of paramount performance and tough to predict.

American League East

Baltimore Orioles 80.5
Boston Red Sox 85.5
New York Yankees 85
Tampa Bay Rays 78
Toronto Blue Jays 87
Overvalued: Tampa Bay Rays. There are four teams capable of winning this division. There is one that is not. Chris Archer is a force to be reckoned with but the Rays struggled to score runs last year (3.98 a game) and will look to Brad Miller and Logan Morrison to add pop. That and a reliance on Evan Longoria returning to form doesn’t instill much confidence. Playing in a division with three bandbox ballparks won’t help either.

Undervalued: Baltimore Orioles. Securing Yovani Gallardo to serve as an ace of a mediocre staff would be key. Should continue tradition of blasting home runs. Have more confidence they can slug with the big boys within the division. Manager Buck Showalter was fantastic in one-run games in 2012 and 2014. A similar even-year formula worked for the San Francisco Giants recently.

Don’t Touch: New York Yankees. Starlin Castro and Luis Severino help bring the Yankees’ average age down a bit but this team is old. There are safer bets than trusting a bunch of 35-plus former superstars to stay healthy for six months.

?
American League Central

Chicago White Sox 80.5
Cleveland Indians 84
Detroit Tigers 85
Kansas City Royals 87
Minnesota Twins 77.5
Overvalued: Cleveland Indians. Starting rotation capable of dominating and racking up astronomical strikeout figures. Do not trust Rajai Davis. Do not trust Mike Napoli for a full season. Do not trust Abraham Almonte. Too many offensive holes.

Undervalued: Minnesota Twins. Expecting a breakout year from Byron Buxton and an even bigger one from Miguel Sano.

Don’t Touch: Detroit Tigers. Always look good on paper. Will be trying out a starting lineup with eight righthanders and one switch-hitter. Justin Verlander, Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez all need to increase their production from last year. The bright spot is a more trustworthy bullpen. Could see a 75-win campaign just as easily as a 95-win one.

American League West

Houston Astros 85.5
Los Angeles Angels 82.5
Oakland Athletics 75.5
Seattle Mariners 83
Texas Rangers 86
Overvalued: Seattle Mariners. Had the lowest ERA in 2014 and finished 12th in the American League in the same category last year. The number suggests a 7-win jump from 2015. Felix Hernandez is great and all but there are three teams I like more in this division, meaning wins could be hard to come by.

Undervalued: Houston Astros. Vegas seems to think last year was a flash in pan. This is a young, hungry team that picked up a huge veteran piece in Doug Fister.

Don’t Touch: Texas Rangers. Have nothing to say about the Rangers.

?
National League East

Atlanta Braves 65
Miami Marlins 80.5
New York Mets 88
Philadelphia Phillies 66.5
Washington Nationals 87
Overvalued: Miami Marlins. Teeming with potential and in possession of Giancarlo Stanton and Jose Fernandez. What’s not to like? Every fiber in my being suggesting the rebuilding projected is a long way from winning stage, for starters.

Undervalued: Atlanta Braves. Look, I don’t think the Braves will be particularly good this year. But I don’t think the Marlins or National League Central trio of contenders will be as dominant as predicted.

Don’t Touch: Washington Nationals. Bryce Harper may very well repeat as National League MVP. The loss of Jordan Zimmermann could be rougher than expected.

National League Central

Chicago Cubs 89
Cincinnati Reds 71
Milwaukee Brewers 71.5
Pittsburgh Pirates 87
St. Louis Cardinals 87.5
Overvalued: Pittsburgh Pirates. The Pirates window has closed. John Jaso is not the answer.

?
Undervalued: Milwaukee Brewers. If one or two young prospects step up, a 90-loss season could be avoided. Jonathan Lucroy is undervalued and Ryan Braun is protected now by Chris Carter. Stranger things have happened.

Don’t Touch: St. Louis Cardinals. Big public team. Lost Jason Heyward to Chicago but always find a way to reach the playoffs.

National League West

Arizona Diamondbacks 84.5
Colorado Rockies 68.5
Los Angeles Dodgers 87
San Diego Padres 74
San Francisco Giants 90
Overvalued: San Francisco Giants

Undervalued: … None

Don’t Touch: Any

… These all seem a bit wonky. Never fear, though, there’s plenty of other ways to lose your money.

Best Bets

Atlanta OVER

Miami UNDER

Cleveland UNDER

?

?
?

Remember that in Miami, they are moving the fences in! Having Mattenely will help.

For the Pirates not having fat pedro alvarez should cut down the errors by almost
a third! Jaso just needs to make the routine plays and hit .250.

Jose, How right you are about the Giants being so gracious during odd numbered years. Even when my Cardinals have been at their best the Giants have found a way to eliminate my redbirds during the playoffs in even numbered years.

Concerning the Royals, you raise a good question about why they are not getting more love and I don't know the answer. When I first saw the top 12 pre-season list this first thing I noticed was that the Royals were missing.

I think even with big slaries parody makes more teams at .500...win one, lose one...sure there will be 6 teams in basement or teams dwelling at or off em...I rather see the bad teams lose 99 games but be spoilers in late September

I am going to sat the Rockies will lose 100 games next season.
This is a awful place to play.
If the Phillies were in any other division, I would say that they would easily lose
100 games.

The Yankees.



Hi Sorp.

Maybe it is just because I am such a big Reds fan Tommy but I do not think they lose 100..... 99 yeah maybe

^^^^ 1st Base Votto, 2nd Base Phillips, Shortstop Cozart, 3rd I guess De Jesus, Right Field Bruce, Center Hamilton, Right I guess Duvall, Catcher Mesoraco, Starting pitcher Baily, and closer Cingrani if Price keeps him in the pen.. If he moves Cingrani then Hoover..... Ok maybe they will lose 100

I need to see even a scrimmage!! I need to see a game real bad!

Jay Bruce .294 OBP last year...let him go...his best years are behind him...

Hmmm...will there be more triple plays?

Place a call into MLB network tomorrow morning and ask that question.

You heard it here...yanks lead or game is close into 6th inning I'll take our chances...wildcards can win and so can hottest team entering playoffs...I hear Gardner has injury..,like to see Aaron Judge get a chance or by next season...Fuhgeddabouit

Enard, Vegas does not put out futures bets on wild card teams.

I forgot to mention that the neighborhood play is now reviewable.