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12/27/2015 9:32:14 AM Baseball HOF  

sorpstar
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Little River, SC
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Loved analysis by Richard Justice

I like Mussina to get in..


Mussina, Raines, Schilling, Trammell: HOF?
??
By Richard Justice
It's not just that Mike Mussina, Curt Schilling, Tim Raines and Alan Trammell haven't gotten enough votes to be inducted into the Hall of Fame after multiple appearances on the ballot that bothers me. It's that they haven't even gotten close.

I get that Hall of Fame voting is complicated. I get, too, that every voter sees the world differently. I voted for the maximum 10 players again this year and would have liked to check five or six more names.
I see a backlog of deserving candidates. On the other hand, I have peers who say just the opposite is true. As Joe Torre once said, "It's the Hall of Fame. It's not supposed to be easy to get into."

Regarding these four guys, they don't seem to be close calls even as slam-dunk candidates -- for instance, Ken Griffey Jr., Randy Johnson, etc. -- land on the ballot and bump them down.

?
In an offensive era, Mussina and Schilling dominated. But in three appearances on the ballot, Schilling's highest vote percentage was 39.2 percent, which isn't in shouting distance of the 75 percent threshold needed for induction. Mussina has done even worse, getting named on 20.3 percent and 24.6 percent of ballots in his first two tries. Neither Raines nor Trammell has gotten close to 75 percent, either, and both of them are running out of chances.

Let's take them one at a time:

Schilling

This isn't a close call. During a 15-season stretch, Schilling averaged 198 innings, 193 strikeouts and a 1.113 WHIP. In 19 postseason starts, he had a 2.23 ERA. In seven World Series starts, his ERA was 2.06. In the context of an offensive era, of smaller ballparks and smaller strike zones, of some players using performance-enhancing drugs, his numbers are extraordinary.

His career WAR is 80.7, higher than a long list of Hall of Famers, including Jim Palmer and Bob Feller. And when the lights were brightest, he was an animal. Jay Jaffe's HOF tool JAWS lists Schilling as the fourth-most deserving candidate on the 2016 ballot, behind only Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens and Ken Griffey Jr. In other words, slam dunk. Bill James' Hall of Fame index also has him well above the Hall of Fame threshold.

?
Mussina

In Mussina's first dozen full seasons, he averaged 215 innings, 173 strikeouts and a 1.161 WHIP. He played his first 10 seasons at Camden Yards, a hitter's paradise. He finished top five in American League Cy Young Award voting six times and was a five-time All-Star and a seven-time Gold Glove Award winner. His career WAR is 82.7, placing him 24th on the all-time list, slightly behind Nolan Ryan, but ahead of Bob Gibson. Jaffe's calculation has him the sixth-most deserving candidate on this ballot, trailing only the previous four names and Jeff Bagwell.

?
Trammell

His 15th appearance on the ballot will be his last, and for those of us who saw him play and came to admire the totality of his game, it's our final chance to be ticked off about the outcome. In 14 appearances, he has never been named on more than 36.8 percent of the ballots.

If Trammell doesn't get 75 percent of the vote this time, he'll be the best player since Ron Santo to be snubbed (in terms of JAWS score). Bill James gives Trammell's career a 118 score, well above his the predicted threshold for induction (100). The problem is, 20 players have scores of at least 100, reflecting the backlog of qualified candidates. His JAWS score is 57.5, which is higher than a host of current Hall of Famers.

He was a six-time All-Star, a four-time Gold Glove Award winner and a three-time Silver Slugger despite competing with two other future Hall of Famers -- Robin Yount and Cal Ripken. Those three helped redefine the way we think of shortstop, transforming it from primarily a defensive position into one in which players contributed offensively.

Trammell's 70.4 career WAR is 62nd all-time among position players, which is higher than Barry Larkin, Tony Gwynn, Dave Winfield, Ernie Banks and a long list of others.

?
Raines

He's one of the few players in my time that opponents have openly lobbied for, saying voters perhaps don't realize what a disruptive force he was. Voters are coming around, although slowly, naming him on 55 percent of ballots last year, so there's some real hope in these final two appearances on the ballot.

He had 2,605 career hits, won a batting title and was a seven-time All-Star. His career WAR is eighth among left fielders and well above the Hall of Fame standard. Of the seven left fielders ahead of him, all are in the Hall of Fame, except for Barry Bonds and Pete Rose.

Raines is 71st all-time among WAR for position players, and as with Trammell, there's a long list of Hall of Famers behind him on the list. His name is dotted up and down the all-time list: hits (79th), runs (54th), stolen bases (fifth) and runs created (58th).

He may get overlooked because he won only one batting title and never reached 200 hits, in part, because he drew walks (he's 136th all-time in OBP at .3854), which should not be enough to keep him out of Cooperstown.

?
My ballot: Bagwell, Griffey, Trevor Hoffman, Edgar Martinez, Mussina, Mike Piazza, Raines, Schilling, Trammell, Billy Wagner.

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12/27/2015 9:35:42 AM Baseball HOF  

wineandroses2
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Always liked Schilling, Piazza and Wagner.

12/27/2015 6:31:52 PM Baseball HOF  
lowcountry23
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Saint Johns, FL
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The Kid 1st Ballot

The rest not so much..................

12/28/2015 8:49:52 AM Baseball HOF  

sillylaugher61
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Murrysville, PA
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Mike Mussina, and Alan Trammel are a lock. Tim Raines was a known pill user!
Griffey I hope gets in. He played with energy and was great to watch!

12/28/2015 11:24:21 AM Baseball HOF  

sorpstar
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Little River, SC
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KG Jr one of 10 greats never to win in world series...he coulda been a Yankee after FA but doesn't forget Billy Martin chasing him around clubhouse as a kid while his dad played for yanks...hope he gets in on first try...

12/28/2015 11:26:24 AM Baseball HOF  

sorpstar
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According to stats on Mussina he should be in HoF but when..

12/30/2015 2:55:49 PM Baseball HOF  
enard
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Lakeville, MN
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Mussina? I looked over his stats again, but I am still undecided. Raines? An easy yes. Schilling? His October pitching puts him over the top for me. Trammell? Sorry, but no. Context...I am a fan of the Twins, but I say no to Kaat, but yes to Oliva...but, hey, I could understand someone who would say no to Oliva.

12/30/2015 3:43:52 PM Baseball HOF  
doublethree
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A bunch of morons are writing articles pushing for Bonds to get in. What losers. They don't "know" he was great before ever doping. they only assume it and then present it as fact. If he gets in, then they should not hold steroids against anyone else and Canseco should get in as he ALMOST got 500 homers and 200 steals, which not many have done. Heck I think he even won a gold glove one year early on.

12/30/2015 7:28:18 PM Baseball HOF  
josecuervosilv
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Quote from sorpstar:
According to stats on Mussina he should be in HoF but when..


He might have to wait Sorp. With a career ERA of about 3.7(no one in Hall has a worse ERA), his win numbers were obviously helped a lot by great run support.

12/30/2015 7:44:53 PM Baseball HOF  

sorpstar
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Quote from josecuervosilv:
He might have to wait Sorp. With a career ERA of about 3.7(no one in Hall has a worse ERA), his win numbers were obviously helped a lot by great run support.


Look at home parks he pitched in Jose...YS and Oriole Park...even you and I can perch them out there...

In Mussina's first dozen full seasons, he averaged 215 innings, 173 strikeouts and a 1.161 WHIP. He played his first 10 seasons at Camden Yards, a hitter's paradise. He finished top five in American League Cy Young Award voting six times and was a five-time All-Star and a seven-time Gold Glove Award winner. His career WAR is 82.7, placing him 24th on the all-time list, slightly behind Nolan Ryan, but ahead of Bob Gibson. Jaffe's calculation has him the sixth-most deserving candidate on this ballot, trailing only the previous four names and Jeff Bagwell.

12/30/2015 8:14:09 PM Baseball HOF  
josecuervosilv
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Quote from sorpstar:
Look at home parks he pitched in Jose...YS and Oriole Park...even you and I can perch them out there...

In Mussina's first dozen full seasons, he averaged 215 innings, 173 strikeouts and a 1.161 WHIP. He played his first 10 seasons at Camden Yards, a hitter's paradise. He finished top five in American League Cy Young Award voting six times and was a five-time All-Star and a seven-time Gold Glove Award winner. His career WAR is 82.7, placing him 24th on the all-time list, slightly behind Nolan Ryan, but ahead of Bob Gibson. Jaffe's calculation has him the sixth-most deserving candidate on this ballot, trailing only the previous four names and Jeff Bagwell.


Mooooooooooooooooooose

1/1/2016 1:48:19 PM Baseball HOF  
doublethree
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Moose didn't ever get his nono, did he? I remember eh was always getting like 1 and 2 hitters.

1/2/2016 7:05:22 AM Baseball HOF  
bandit__geezer
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FujianFujian
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Put Gil Hodges in before any of those mentioned...

1/3/2016 9:44:03 AM Baseball HOF  

sorpstar
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WAR Position Players Ranks Bats
1. Babe Ruth+ (22) 163.1 L
2. Barry Bonds (22) 162.4 L
3. Willie Mays+ (22) 156.2 R
4. Ty Cobb+ (24) 151.0 L
5. Hank Aaron+ (23) 142.6 R
6. Tris Speaker+ (22) 133.7 L
7. Honus Wagner+ (21) 131.0 R
8. Stan Musial+ (22) 128.1 L
9. Rogers Hornsby+ (23) 127.0 R
10. Eddie Collins+ (25) 123.9 L
Rank Player (yrs, age) WAR Position Players Bats
11. Ted Williams+ (19) 123.1 L
12. Alex Rodriguez (21, 39) 118.9 R
13. Lou Gehrig+ (17) 112.4 L
14. Rickey Henderson+ (25) 110.8 R
15. Mickey Mantle+ (18) 109.7 B
16. Mel Ott+ (22) 107.8 L
17. Nap Lajoie+ (21) 107.4 R
18. Frank Robinson+ (21) 107.2 R
19. Mike Schmidt+ (18) 106.5 R
20. Joe Morgan+ (22) 100.3 L
Rank Player (yrs, age) WAR Position Players Bats
21. Albert Pujols (15, 35) 99.7 R
22. Jimmie Foxx+ (20) 96.4 R
Eddie Mathews+ (17) 96.4 L
24. Carl Yastrzemski+ (23) 96.1 L
25. Cal Ripken+ (21) 95.5 R
26. Roberto Clemente+ (18) 94.5 R
27. Cap Anson+ (27) 93.9 R
28. Al Kaline+ (22) 92.5 R
29. Wade Boggs+ (18) 91.0 L
30. George Brett+ (21) 88.4 L
Rank Player (yrs, age) WAR Position Players Bats
31. Chipper Jones (19) 85.0 B
32. George Davis+ (20) 84.7 B
33. Roger Connor+ (18) 84.1 L
34. Adrian Beltre (18, 36) 83.8 R
35. Ken Griffey (22) 83.6 L
36. Rod Carew+ (19) 81.1 L
37. Charlie Gehringer+ (19) 80.6 L
38. Jeff Bagwell (15) 79.6 R
39. Dan Brouthers+ (19) 79.4 L
40. Pete Rose (24) 79.1 B
Rank Player (yrs, age) WAR Position Players Bats
41. Brooks Robinson+ (23) 78.4 R
42. Joe DiMaggio+ (13) 78.1 R
43. Robin Yount+ (20) 77.0 R
44. Ozzie Smith+ (19) 76.4 B
45. Paul Molitor+ (21) 75.4 R
46. Bill Dahlen (21) 75.2 R
47. Sam Crawford+ (19) 75.1 L
48. Johnny Bench+ (17) 75.0 R
49. Lou Whitaker (19) 74.9 L
50. Luke Appling+ (20) 74.4 R
Rank Player (yrs, age) WAR Position Players Bats

1/3/2016 10:18:17 AM Baseball HOF  
bandit__geezer
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War, huh yeah
What is it good for?
Absolutely nothing, oh hoh, oh
War huh yeah
What is it good for?
Absolutely nothing, say it again y'all
War, huh good God
What is it good for?
Absolutely nothing, listen to me



Eyeball test and being a, or the, dominant player at a position for approximately a decade have always been the criteria for me. Screw all the sabermetrics crap.

1/6/2016 9:11:05 PM Baseball HOF  

sillylaugher61
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so Piazza gets in along with Griffey. Griffey set a new record 99.3 easily beating
former record holder Tom Seaver.

Sorry Tommy but former Cardinal Jim Edmunds didn't get the 5% needed to stay on the ballot. I would have preferred him on the ballot instead of Sammy Sosa who collected 7%.

1/6/2016 9:41:08 PM Baseball HOF  
tommy8345
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Quote from sillylaugher61:
so Piazza gets in along with Griffey. Griffey set a new record 99.3 easily beating
former record holder Tom Seaver.

Sorry Tommy but former Cardinal Jim Edmunds didn't get the 5% needed to stay on the ballot. I would have preferred him on the ballot instead of Sammy Sosa who collected 7%.


Silly, I hear you man. I didn't expect Edmunds to get in, and Sosa should never get in. I think both Griffy, Jr. and Piazza are very deserving. They were both two great baseball players.

1/7/2016 4:18:38 PM Baseball HOF  

sorpstar
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Congrats to Piazza, one of the greatest hitting catchers of all time...Ken Griffey Jr what could he have been if not injured in twilight of his career...I remember seeing Jr leaping and taking away a HR at YS to help win a game for Ms..that moment he climbed the wall to help his leap and I thought he was special...congrats to both

1/7/2016 8:59:23 PM Baseball HOF  
doublethree
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In my honest opinion, Sosa, McGwire, Clemens, and Canseco should be in, but if any are left out due to what they sued, ALL should be. None of this BS that bonds and Clemens were already HOFers before using etc etc.

1/7/2016 11:13:33 PM Baseball HOF  

driver406
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Griffey made it, so did Piazza. The steroids guys will be elected by a old timers committee after they die I think. Same with Rose. I mean after he dies his lifetime suspension will be over, right?

1/8/2016 10:20:32 AM Baseball HOF  

sillylaugher61
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Quote from doublethree:
In my honest opinion, Sosa, McGwire, Clemens, and Canseco should be in, but if any are left out due to what they sued, ALL should be. None of this BS that bonds and Clemens were already HOFers before using etc etc.


McGwire and Sosa and Canseco are not hall of famers.


1/8/2016 1:26:39 PM Baseball HOF  
doublethree
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Quote from sillylaugher61:
McGwire and Sosa and Canseco are not hall of famers.

Look at their stats. McGwire and Sosa are top 10 in career homers and Canseco is one of very few who has 450+ homers and 200+ steals.

In fact even fewer than I thought. Guess how many have done 450/200? three. that's right. Three. Only Bonds, Aaron, and Canseco.

1/8/2016 1:38:04 PM Baseball HOF  
doublethree
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Plus Jose played like 33% less seasons than them and was always injured and still did it. Had all three played only the number of seasons as Canseco, Aaron wouldn't be in the club.



[Edited 1/8/2016 1:39:00 PM ]

1/8/2016 1:43:48 PM Baseball HOF  
doublethree
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Oops. lol. It ahd two columns of players and I only noticed the one. Still there are only ten players with that combination. Top 10 power/speed for him and top 10 power only for McGwire/sosa. And out of the ten, only one other did it in under 20 years.



[Edited 1/8/2016 1:45:42 PM ]

1/8/2016 5:40:10 PM Baseball HOF  

sillylaugher61
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Quote from doublethree:
Look at their stats. McGwire and Sosa are top 10 in career homers and Canseco is one of very few who has 450+ homers and 200+ steals.

In fact even fewer than I thought. Guess how many have done 450/200? three. that's right. Three. Only Bonds, Aaron, and Canseco.


so how do they shape up on their defensive metrics?
This is the hall of fame we are talking about. not the hall of pretty good.

1/8/2016 6:59:02 PM Baseball HOF  

acdmv
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Quote from sorpstar:
According to stats on Mussina he should be in HoF but when..


So should Tommy John....but that never happened.

Moose doesn't have the ERA and WHIP to get in....but the W's are there

1/8/2016 7:01:30 PM Baseball HOF  

acdmv
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Binghamton, NY
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Quote from sillylaugher61:
so Piazza gets in along with Griffey. Griffey set a new record 99.3 easily beating
former record holder Tom Seaver.

Sorry Tommy but former Cardinal Jim Edmunds didn't get the 5% needed to stay on the ballot. I would have preferred him on the ballot instead of Sammy Sosa who collected 7%.


Piazza in...

Clemens out....

Bit of poetic justice there

1/8/2016 7:47:28 PM Baseball HOF  
tommy8345
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Quote from acdmv:
Piazza in...

Clemens out....

Bit of poetic justice there


Piazza took only mild doses of steroids, Clemens took the whole bottle!

1/8/2016 11:56:37 PM Baseball HOF  
doublethree
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Quote from sillylaugher61:
so how do they shape up on their defensive metrics?
This is the hall of fame we are talking about. not the hall of pretty good.

There are plenty players in the HOF who didn't do much on defense, though. And Canseco and Sosa at least had strong arms.

1/9/2016 9:01:59 AM Baseball HOF  

acdmv
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Quote from tommy8345:
Piazza took only mild doses of steroids, Clemens took the whole bottle!


I do believe Piazza was juicing in the mid-to-late 90's....how much, only he knows. The suspicion around his usage, and the possibility that the Mitchell report may have revealed the 100-or-so names that tested positive (which his is definitely on) is the reason he didn't get in 1st-ballot in '14 &'15...

Bonds and Clemens were no brainers, and never get in...

1/9/2016 3:00:55 PM Baseball HOF  

sillylaugher61
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Quote from acdmv:
I do believe Piazza was juicing in the mid-to-late 90's....how much, only he knows. The suspicion around his usage, and the possibility that the Mitchell report may have revealed the 100-or-so names that tested positive (which his is definitely on) is the reason he didn't get in 1st-ballot in '14 &'15...

Bonds and Clemens were no brainers, and never get in...


I wouldn't count on that. as time passes, the older voter are removed and younger voters
take their place. Piazza is the first step in the steroid era. If Jeff Kent gets in,
Then both Bonds and Clemens will get in. At least they didn't bet on games like Rose did.

1/9/2016 4:40:46 PM Baseball HOF  
bandit__geezer
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^^^^^ Jeff Kent will never get in because the writers dislike him. It is sad, because he is more worthy than most of the second baseman that are in such as 2015 inductee Craig Biggio.

1/9/2016 5:00:47 PM Baseball HOF  

sorpstar
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Little River, SC
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Quote from bandit__geezer:
^^^^^ Jeff Kent will never get in because the writers dislike him. It is sad, because he is more worthy than most of the second baseman that are in such as 2015 inductee Craig Biggio.


Craig biggio was versatile as in playing from catcher to 2nd base and outfield, enough said ...Kent sucked and choked as a Mets player...biggio had over 3000 hits...Kent maybe just over 2400...Kent had more power...



[Edited 1/9/2016 5:01:47 PM ]

1/9/2016 5:47:32 PM Baseball HOF  

sillylaugher61
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Quote from bandit__geezer:
^^^^^ Jeff Kent will never get in because the writers dislike him. It is sad, because he is more worthy than most of the second baseman that are in such as 2015 inductee Craig Biggio.


Jeff Kent could not hold Biggios jockstrap! Biggio played 2nd base,3rd base
the outfield and catcher!!!!!
Plus he played his entire career with 1 team, amazing!!!!

1/9/2016 6:11:29 PM Baseball HOF  
doublethree
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Quote from acdmv:
I do believe Piazza was juicing in the mid-to-late 90's....how much, only he knows. The suspicion around his usage, and the possibility that the Mitchell report may have revealed the 100-or-so names that tested positive (which his is definitely on) is the reason he didn't get in 1st-ballot in '14 &'15...

Bonds and Clemens were no brainers, and never get in...

Young people are dumb (especially liberal ones), so they will just rebel in this like anything else and say it's no big deal they sued substances, thus why the percentage voting yes will go up up up over the years.